The election of the House speaker scheduled for Friday seems more and more to be less about Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson and all about Donald Trump’s dominance over the GOP. In its first order, today’s vote is the first measure of Donald Trump’s capacity to rally Republicans in advance of the 119th Congress and his continuing stewardship of the White House.
This makes sense if Republicans are ready to push through dramatic policy changes from immigration to taxes as soon as they begin their new term. However, the problem here is that the party has very little majority and is also divided within the party.
GOP’s Thin Margin of Error
Selecting a house speaker, a customarily uneventful political event, has become a risky event. The GOP currently controls the body by a slim margin, therefore Johnson can ill afford to be without a vote from the cabinet if all other members are present. Because the vote has always been a close shave, Republicans view it as a gamble and need to show toughness and efficiency to pass their aggressive reforms.
A Defining Moment for Donald Trump
For Donald Trump, this is probably the most important result. Winning for Mike Johnson would indeed cement his authority over the republican domination of the House of Representatives, senate, and the presidency. But it can also weaken confidence in his capacity to govern well and turn the state and its institutions around as he has promised.
Conclusion
It helps to define the basic tenor of what Republicans want for the 109th Congress, and for the foreseeable future. Yet, the challenges are clear: establishing a party and its unity, followed by getting over various process formalities and excluding the Democratic attitude in the Senate.
As the GOP heads into this decisive stage, the potential rewards for both Donald Trump and Johnson, as well as the future of the party could not be greater. Attention has shifted to Friday because depending on what occurs everything in Washington’s new politics could change.
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